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dollar to pound

The pair has just recovered after falling to the 1.3030 range floor and is currently trading at 1.3215 - there is a possibility it could continue rising within the range use this, however balanced against that is the fact the 50-day moving average (MA) is directly above the current market level and is likely to act as a significant obstacle to further gains.

If it manages to break above the 50-day MA, the range highs and also above the major trendline it will have established a strong basis for a continuation of the uptrend higher.

A break above a major trendline is a strong bullish indicator, however, a move above the 1.3350 level would be required to confirm such an extension, which would be expected to lead to a target at 1.3450.

Alternatively, a break below the range lows would probably signal a continuation down to a target at 1.2900, just above the 200-day moving average.

Such a move would gain confirmation from a move below the 1.3027 lows.

"An interesting bout of strength within the current 1.3025 – 1.3340 range. Our short-term studies suggest the range should persist and therefore the upside is expected to be limited. While under 1.3340 our bias is for an eventual test below 1.30, with the 1.28 region the main support below," says Robin Wilkin, a technical strategist with Lloyds Bank.

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Data and Events for the Dollar

It is a quiet week for US data, and the US public holiday Thanksgiving falls on Thursday, November 23, which means most traders in New York will be off on Friday too to bridge the weekend.

Rather than lead to sluggish trading, however, research shows that the Friday after Thanksgiving has a propensity to being highly volatile.

"Low liquidity makes it extremely easy to exacerbate the volatility that we have been seeing in the currency market. In 2007 and 2006, the EUR/USD’s trading range on the Friday after Thanksgiving was more than 3 times its trading range on Thanksgiving Day," says BK Asset Management Managing Director Kathy Lien.



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Idea No. 154